Expert Survey of forecasting Marine Le Pen’s score in 2012

This experimental expert survey was conducted in early November 2011 as a first attempt to operationalise expert academic knowledge into a predictive indicator. Participating experts were asked to answer anonymously the following question: “what is your own estimate, today, of Marine Le Pen's score in the first round of the 2012 Presidential election?

The poll was closed on 16 November 2011 and achieved a final response rate of over 50 per cent with a total of 57 respondents out of a selected group of 100 experts on French electoral politics or comparative Radical Right parties.

The survey results are summarised below.

The findings will be published as part of an article to appear in a special issue of French Politics on election forecasting, edited by Michael Lewis-Beck.

 

Download the data and analysis

The analysis is available here in PDF format:

Estimating Marine Le Pen's vote in the 2012 presidentials: an experiment

The complete dataset is available for download in SPSS, Excel and CSV formats:

[Data in SPSS format 2 KB ] [Data in CSV file 2 KB ] [Data in Excel format 24 KB] [Codebook.txt]

NOTE: The data are available free of charge and without restrictions. The producers of the survey bear no responsibility for the uses of the data, or for interpretations based on these uses. Citation of the source of the data should be made for every use of the survey.

 

Summary of survey results

Number of responses: 57
Number of valid responses: 56 [one respondent gave vote range of 15-25%]

Mean 17.06
Standard deviation 3.59
Min 10
Max 30
Median 17.00
Mode 18.00

Skewness (s.e.)
1.02 (0.32)
Excluding maximum:
0.43 (0.32)

Percentiles

25th 15.00
50th 17.00
75th 18.00

Response-time subset

Today
Mean 17.13 Std. dev. 2.90
More than 24 hours
16.99 (4.22)

Within an hour
18.14 (2.78)
Over an hour, under a day
16.47 (2.87)

 
Jocelyn Evans
University of Salford
Gilles Ivaldi
University of Nice
   
J.A.Evans@salford.ac.uk gilles.ivaldi@unice.fr